A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox (Mpox) is a re-emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Transmission occurs primarily through direct contact with lesions or contaminated materials, with sexual transmission playing a significant role in recent outbreaks. In 2022, Mpox triggered a major global outbreak and was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), prompting renewed interest in effective control strategies. METHODS: This study developed a compartmental SEIR-based model to assess the epidemiological impact of key interventions, including vaccination and isolation, while incorporating critical epidemiological parameters. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine (1) disease dynamics in relation to the basic reproduction number, and (2) how different parameters influence the curve of symptomatic infections. Real-world continental-scale data were used to validate the model and identify the parameters that most significantly affect epidemic progression and potential control of Mpox. RESULTS: Results showed that the basic reproduction number was most influenced by the recovery rate, vaccination rate, vaccine effectiveness, and transmission rates of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. In contrast, the progression of symptomatic cases was highly sensitive to the case fatality rate and incubation rate. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of integrated public health strategies combining vaccination, isolation, and early transmission control to mitigate future Mpox outbreaks.