A quantitative risk assessment for the likelihood of introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 into U.S. hunter retriever dogs.

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain H5N1 has received great attention with regard to its potential spread to North America. This quantitative risk assessment, which is primarily based on wild bird carriage of HPAI from East Asia to Alaska, was conducted to assess the likelihood of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected after harvesting an infected waterfowl during the Alaskan hunting season. Using Monte Carlo Simulation with @Risk software, the expected probability of a hunter retriever dog becoming infected is 2.3 x 10(-8). This model can serve as a tool for decision makers in assessing the risk of HPAI strain H5N1 introduction into Alaska's hunter retriever dogs.