A scoping review and taxonomy of epidemiological-macroeconomic models for livestock diseases.

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Livestock disease outbreaks can generate significant macroeconomic harms, though few studies have combined epidemiological and macroeconomic analysis in a joint modelling framework. We reviewed existing approaches to epidemiological-macroeconomic modelling for livestock diseases, to identify challenges and opportunities for further model development. METHODS: We systematically searched electronic databases for journal articles, preprints, working papers and grey literature. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. We analysed results descriptively and provided a critical appraisal of the strength, limitations and use cases of existing methods. RESULTS: We found 17 articles modelling the animal health and macroeconomic outcomes of livestock disease outbreaks. Models used outputs from epidemiological model simulations linked to a macroeconomic model, with no feedback from the economy to epidemiology. Macroeconomic modelling approaches consisted of the use of computable general equilibrium models, input output models and social accounting models. The literature was heavily dominated by considerations for hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease incursions in high-income settings. CONCLUSION: Priority for future research includes efforts to model a wider array of livestock diseases in endemic and low-income settings, further consideration for socioeconomic impacts and the need for improved data.