Adjusted incidence risks of BSE in risk subpopulations of cattle in Japan.

Abstract

Immediately after the detection of the first case of BSE in 2001, the Japanese government introduced active surveillance targeting fallen-stock and all cattle slaughtered for human consumption. By the end of 2004, four million animals were tested with rapid tests under the passive and active surveillance. As a result 13 additional cases were detected. I focused on the 1996 birth cohort, in which nine cases of BSE were detected during 2001-2004, and estimated the prevalence of BSE infection of that birth cohort using maximum-likelihood methods. Using the estimated prevalence of infection as an input variable, I calculated the adjusted incidence risk of BSE by different ages and risk subpopulations (clinical-suspects, fallen-stock, sick-slaughter and healthy-slaughter animals). The adjusted incidence risk of BSE in sick-slaughter animals (animals showing clinical signs not compatible with BSE when slaughtered for human consumption) was 18.7 and 4.5-78.4 times higher than the incidence risk in fallen-stock and healthy-slaughter animals, respectively.