An agent-based model facilitating stakeholder engagement in management of estuaries along the Texas Gulf Coast (USA).

Abstract

We describe an agent-based model purposed for social learning, which was developed by stakeholders, with the technical assistance of professional modelers, to facilitate stakeholder involvement in modeling issues related to the development of an adaptive environmental management plan for the Texas Gulf Coast (USA) estuaries. Stakeholders developed the model during six workshops that spanned a three-year period, and used the model to simulate the population dynamics (recruitment, growth, movement, and mortality) of blue crabs (<i>Callinectes sapidus</i>) in the Aransas and Copano Bays in response to various freshwater inflow and harvest scenarios. Results of scenarios representing normal, low, and high harvest levels indicated little effect on blue crab abundances, but harvests increased ≈75 % when harvest level was doubled and decreased ≈50 % harvest level was halved. These results failed to confirm the perceptions of stakeholders. However, upon more thorough consideration of the scientific bases for the quantitative representation (by the modelers) of the processes they wanted to include in the model, most stakeholders realized their initial perceptions were inconsistent with current data-based knowledge.•The agent-based model is described using the ODD protocol.•The brief model user's guide is provided.•The model calibration, verification, and technical evaluation are described.