Analysis of racing speed in the Italian trotter population

Abstract

The current world record for trotter is 68.0 s/km, that is better than the estimates of record limit reported in literature (68.2 s/km for males and 69.1 s/km for females in Swedish Trotters): this is way the record limit was investigated in Italian Trotter using the same methodology applied to Swedish Trotter. The best racing times of 30’587 3-5 year old Italian Trotters, recorded between January 1st, 1992, and October 31th, 2009, have been log transformed to check for trends and asymptotic limit: a positive trend is present, and limits of 61.8 s/km and 62.8 s/km have been respectively estimated for males and females. The Generalized Extreme Value theory, applied to the 3-year old winners of the Italian Trot Derby, estimates a limit of 64.7 s/km. These results indicate that the limit for racing speed is still far from actual values.