Peer-reviewed veterinary case report
Bovine tuberculosis: within-herd transmission models to support and direct the decision-making process.
- Journal:
- Research in veterinary science
- Year:
- 2014
- Authors:
- Alvarez, Julio et al.
- Affiliation:
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine · United States
Plain-English summary
Researchers are using mathematical models to understand how bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spreads among cattle, but this is tricky because there are many uncertainties about the disease. They reviewed different studies to see how the assumptions made in these models, like how animals interact and the presence of non-infectious stages, affect the results. Most studies found that when herds are tested and infected animals are removed, the spread of bTB within the herd is relatively low. However, there were differences in how long animals might be infected and how effective the tests are. The researchers suggest that improving these models by considering how animals actually interact could help in creating better strategies to control and eliminate bTB.
Abstract
Use of mathematical models to study the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is becoming increasingly common in veterinary sciences. However, modeling chronic infectious diseases such as bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is particularly challenging due to the substantial uncertainty associated with the epidemiology of the disease. Here, the methodological approaches used to model bTB and published in the peer-reviewed literature in the last decades were reviewed with a focus on the impact that the models' assumptions may have had on their results, such as the assumption of density vs. frequency-dependent transmission, the existence of non-infectious and non-detectable stages, and the effect of extrinsic sources of infection (usually associated with wildlife reservoirs). Although all studies suggested a relatively low rate of within-herd transmission of bTB when test-and-cull programs are in place, differences in the estimated length of the infection stages, sensitivity and specificity of the tests used and probable type of transmission (density or frequency dependent) were observed. Additional improvements, such as exploring the usefulness of contact-networks instead of assuming homogeneous mixing of animals, may help to build better models that can help to design, evaluate and monitor control and eradication strategies against bTB.
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Search related cases →Original publication: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24875061/