Dynamics of cholera transmission in poultry farm: insights from a compartmental model and control strategies.

Abstract

1. Fowl cholera poses a significant challenge for poultry farms around the globe. The disease's high mortality in poultry affects economics for farmers.2. A susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-treated-culled-recovered (SEIATCR) mathematical model was used to describe the dynamics of cholera transmission in poultry farms. This calculated the basic reproduction number (R_0) using a next-generation matrix; a mathematical tool used in population dynamics and epidemiology to calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀).3. The SEIATCR model was replicated using the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg Method (RK-45) numerical process using the value of the model's parameters available from the reported literature.4. The results showed that treatment and culling had a significant effect on disease transmission. Moreover, treatment was more effective than culling. Sensitivity analysis of the model's parameters for the basic reproduction number was investigated using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC), which showed that transmission rate and vaccine efficacy had the greatest sensitivity index and treatment rate is more sensitive than culling. In epidemiology, a sensitivity index is a numerical value that enumerates the impact of changes in a model's parameters on the model's output, such as disease transmission.5. There will always be a need to vaccinate, treat and cull infected poultry to control cholera in poultry farms.