Evaluating the effectiveness of the response to equine influenza in the Australian outbreak and the potential role of early vaccination.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To use modelling and epidemiological analyses to assess the effectiveness of control strategies employed during the equine influenza outbreak and determine if early vaccination might have had a beneficial effect. METHODS: Transmission of infection was modelled using stochastic, spatial simulation, based on data from 16 regions in New South Wales and Queensland over the first month of the outbreak. RESULTS: The model accurately represented the spread of infection in both space and time and showed that vaccination strategies would have reduced new infections by ∼60% and reduced the size of the infected area by 8-9%, compared to the non-vaccination baseline. CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with biosecurity measures and movement controls, early vaccination could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.