Farmer and Consumer Responses to African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Implications for Post-Outbreak Control and Eradication

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) remains a major challenge for global animal disease prevention and control. Public sentiment during ASF, along with farmer and consumer behavior, are underexplored factors in ASF control. This study examines how public sentiment influences farmers’ risk perceptions and consumers’ behavioral responses, including consumption substitution intention and pork price expectations, and assesses the implications of these behaviors for disease control effectiveness. Using provincial panel data from China (June 2021–November 2022), sentiment analysis of 1.19 million Weibo posts, and a micro-level survey of 920 farmers, we combine panel regression, spatial econometric analysis, and micro-level behavioral evidence. Results show that public sentiment significantly elevates farmers’ risk perception, which may influence reporting decisions, marketing timing, and biosecurity investment, thereby increasing the complexity of surveillance and disease control. Sentiment intensifies substitution intentions and shapes pork price expectations, leading to reduced demand for formally marketed pork and potential shifts to lower-traceability or less-inspected channels. Spatial analysis indicates that the half-decay distance for amplifying ASF risk via sentiment is about 1300 km, providing parameters for cross-jurisdictional coordination. These findings support integrating socio-behavioral indicators into veterinary early warning systems and designing targeted disease risk communication under a broader One Health framework.