Geospatial distribution of Glanders in a tropical area of northeastern Brazil: A retrospective spatial and spatiotemporal approach (2020-2024).

Abstract

Glanders is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Burkholderia mallei, affecting equids and posing a public health risk. In Brazil, the disease remains endemic in several regions, particularly in the Northeast. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of glanders cases and the risk of infection in equines in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2020 and 2024. Official data on confirmed glanders cases in equines from all 185 municipalities of Pernambuco were used. Incidence risk (IR), global and local spatial autocorrelation (Moran's Index), Kernel density analysis, and space-time cluster identification using SaTScan™ software were applied. A total of 120 glanders cases were reported across 43 municipalities, with the highest concentration in the Metropolitan, Agreste, and Zona da Mata mesoregions. The year 2022 showed the highest number of cases (38) and the highest IR (2.87 per 10,000 equines). Spatial analysis revealed a positive autocorrelation (I = 0.023; p = 0.005), with high/high risk patterns in the municipalities of Olinda, Paulista, Camocim de São Félix, and Sairé. Cluster analysis identified primary high-risk clusters in Olinda under both retrospective (RR = 582.77) and prospective (RR = 299.80) approaches. It is concluded that glanders displays a heterogeneous and regionalized distribution in the state, with critical transmission areas. The results underscore the importance of integrated and targeted surveillance for the prevention and control of the disease in endemic and border areas.