Geospatial surveillance of the rabies virus in cattle in Brazil.

Abstract

In Brazil, bovine rabies causes significant economic losses and poses a risk to both human and veterinary public health. Its persistence is associated with agricultural expansion, environmental factors, and the presence of reservoirs that favor viral circulation. In this context, spatiotemporal analyses are essential to identify high-risk areas and guide effective surveillance strategies. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal, and temporal trends of bovine rabies in Brazil between 2015 and 2024. An ecological study was conducted using data from the National Animal Health Information System (SIZ), applying spatiotemporal, and temporal trend analyses. A total of 7458 cases were reported during the study period, with higher concentrations in the Southeast (28.26%), South (27.76%), and Central-West (21.99%) regions. The highest incidence risks were observed in the South (8.15/100,000), Southeast (5.69/100,000), and Northeast (2.73/100,000). At the state level, Amapá (81.04/100,000), Paraná (8.51/100,000), Pernambuco (8.41/100,000), Amazonas (8.24/100,000), and São Paulo (7.83/100,000) stood out. Desmodus rotundus plays a central role in the maintenance and transmission of rabies virus to herbivores in Brazil, with case density and records of this species overlapping mainly in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná, particularly in areas of pasture, temporary crops, and environmental mosaics. Retrospective analysis identified eight high-risk spatiotemporal clusters, with the primary cluster located in the South and Southeast (2015-2019), showing a relative risk (RR) of 2.86. Prospective analysis revealed five recent clusters, with the primary one located in Paraná and Santa Catarina (2022-2024; RR = 3.88). Joinpoint regression demonstrated an overall decreasing trend in incidence risk (APC: -8.6%). This is the first nationwide study integrating spatiotemporal, and temporal analyses of bovine rabies, highlighting its widespread occurrence across Brazil and identifying strategic areas for strengthening control measures. KEYWORDS: Bovine rabies Spatiotemporal analysis Epidemiology Risk clusters Brazil.