Global Patterns and Predictors of Zoonotic Disease Burden Based on a Multi-Indicator Analysis from Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic diseases represent a major concern for global public health with marked variation in their burden observed across different regions and population groups. METHODS: This study investigated the global distribution and determinants of zoonotic diseases using datasets from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study and the WHO Global Health Observatory databases. We evaluated the roles of sex, age, and the sociodemographic index (SDI) on zoonotic disease burden by examining incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and mortality data across 201 nations. The statistical approach incorporated Spearman correlation, multivariate regression models, and stratified time-series forecasting to 2040. RESULTS: The results showed a higher disease burden in Africa, South Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia, particularly among older males in low-SDI regions. A strong inverse association was observed between SDI and zoonotic disease burden, with improved health coverage and physician density linked to lower morbidity and mortality. Predictive models indicated a gradual global decline in disease burden, although progress varied significantly by region. CONCLUSION: These results underscore the urgency of implementing equity-oriented interventions and inform strategic resource allocation that gives precedence to prioritizing vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income regions.