Hantavirus transmission in sylvan and peridomestic environments.

Abstract

We developed a compartmental model for hantavirus infection in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) with the goal of comparing relative importance of direct and indirect transmission in sylvan and peridomestic environments. A direct transmission occurs when the infection is mediated by the contact of an infected and an uninfected mouse, while an indirect transmission occurs when the infection is mediated by the contact of an uninfected mouse with, for instance, infected soil. Based on population dynamics data and estimates of hantavirus decay in the two types of environments, our model predicts that direct transmission dominates in the sylvan environment, while both pathways are important in peridomestic environments. The model allows us to compute a basic reproduction number R(0), which indicates whether the virus will be endemic or eradicated from the mouse population, in both an autonomous and a time-periodic model. Our analysis can be used to evaluate various eradication strategies.