Identification of Areas at Increased Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Commercial Poultry in Poland.

Abstract

The objective of the study was to identify the areas at increased risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurrence in commercial poultry in Poland. To identify the risk factors related to the occurrence of HPAI outbreaks, the opinions of Polish experts were combined with literature-driven knowledge. The relative impact of each risk factor was determined using a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The applied model suggests that the greatest risk of HPAI occurrence is concentrated in several counties in the eastern, western, and central parts of the country. The most influential risk actors responsible for HPAI occurrence in Poland included waterfowl density and proximity to waterbodies. The model had a high predictive value (area under the curve = 0.78). The developed spatial risk assessment of HPAI occurrence provides a valuable source of information for risk managers and can contribute to early detection of potential outbreaks of HPAI in poultry.