Impact of climate change on the presence of Neospora caninum: assessing of limiting and optimal temperatures for its development in Aguascalientes, Mexico.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assessing the limiting and optimal temperatures for the development of the free-living stage of Neospora caninum in Aguascalientes under climate change scenarios. Raster climate data on temperature and rainfall were used to examine historical climate trends (1902-2015) and future projection scenarios (2015-2039) in the region. Existing information on the prevalence of anti-N. caninum antibodies in backyard chickens from Aguascalientes, Mexico, was also considered. Spatial distribution was analyzed using the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique. Data processing and geoprocessing were performed with R Project and ArcMap. The distribution analysis of N. caninum showed a widespread presence across the state (78%). The projected climate change scenario indicated a 2.4 °C increase in average maximum temperature and a 1.4 °C increase in minimum temperature, along with a 62 mm reduction in average rainfall. The future scenario suggests that low temperatures from December to February could limit parasite development, while optimal temperature conditions are maintained for nine months, from March to November. Within this period, a four-month span from June to September was identified as high-risk for infection due to the combination of suitable temperature and humidity.