Implications of predator species richness in terms of zoonotic spillover transmission of filovirus diseases in Africa.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: A rich biodiversity of predators has been suggested to suppress the risk of zoonotic spillover by regulating prey abundance and behavior. We evaluated the association between predator species richness and spillover events of Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus in Africa. METHODS: Historical records of filovirus outbreaks, along with ecological, geographical and socioeconomic factors, were considered in this environmental study. We used the maximum entropy approach (Maxent modeling) and stacked species distribution models to estimate predator species richness. Logistic regression analyses accounting for spatiotemporal autocorrelations were conducted to assess the association between predator species richness and spillover risk, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Higher species richness of certain predators-the order Strigiformes and the family Colubridae-was associated with lower risks of Ebolavirus spillover, but not with Marburgvirus spillover. The third quartile (OR=0.02, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]=0.00-0.84) and fourth quartile (OR=0.07, 95% BCI=0.00-0.42) of Strigiformes species richness, as well as the third quartile (OR=0.15, 95% BCI=0.01-0.73) and fourth quartile (OR=0.53, 95% BCI=0.03-0.85) of Colubridae species richness, were significantly associated with reduced odds of Ebolavirus index cases. CONCLUSION: These findings support a possible role for predator species richness in suppressing zoonotic spillover.