Modelling the continental-scale spread of Schmallenberg virus in Europe: approaches and challenges.

Abstract

Following its emergence in northern Europe in 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a vector-borne disease transmitted by the bites of Culicoides midges, has spread across much of the continent. Here we develop simple models to describe the spread of SBV at a continental scale and, more specifically, within and between NUTS2 regions in Europe. The model for the transmission of SBV between regions suggests that vector dispersal is the principle mechanism for transmission, even at the continental scale. The within-region model indicates that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst regions in the force of infection for cattle and sheep farms. Moreover, there is considerable under-ascertainment of SBV-affected holdings, though the level of under-ascertainment varies between regions. We contrast the relatively simple approach adopted in this study with the more complex continental-scale micro-simulation models which have been developed for pandemic influenza and discuss the strengths, weaknesses and data requirements of both approaches.