Profile and temporal dynamics of the feline sporotrichosis epidemic in southern Brazil: A forecasting analysis.

Abstract

A detailed clinical-epidemiological analysis of feline sporotrichosis was conducted, and 288 cases reported between the years 2007 and 2018 were analyzed. The studied cases primarily involved mongrel cats (240/260), males (212/282), and adults (121/200). The main objectives were to identify the risk factors, calculate the monthly incidence rates, and establish a predictive model using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. The statistical analysis revealed significant associations (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05) between prolonged lesion evolution times and factors such as respiratory signs, prior treatments, and lesion contact. Empirical treatment was identified as a significant risk factor for disease progression. Moreover, the number of cases demonstrated an increasing trend over the study period, with annual peaks noted in disease incidence. The SARIMA model proved to be an effective tool for forecasting the incidence of sporotrichosis, offering robust support for epidemiological surveillance and facilitating targeted public health interventions in endemic regions. The predictive accuracy of the developed model underscored its utility in enhancing disease monitoring and supporting proactive health measures for the effective management of sporotrichosis.