Quantitative risk assessment of the likeihood of introducing porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus into New Zealand through the importation of pig meat.

Abstract

A quantitative model was developed to estimate the likelihood of an incursion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) into New Zealand through the importation of fresh consumer-ready cuts of pig meat. A sensitivity analysis of all the inputs used in this model illustrated the importance of correctly modelling the available 'dose-response' data, and a mechanistic Beta-Poisson model was shown to be the most appropriate method for this in the authors' assessment. The output of this model predicts an average of approximately 1,200 years between PRRSV introductions resulting in primary infections in New Zealand. Given the uncertainties in the model, there is 95% confidence that this time period ranges from 52 to 6,200 years. The values chosen in this model are considered to provide a conservative estimate of the likelihood of introducing PRRSV into New Zealand via the importation of fresh pork.