Retrospective epizootic and geographical characteristics of rabies in Ukraine

Abstract

Rabies is an extremely dangerous zoonotic disease caused by a neurotropic virus of the Lyssavirus genus. All mammals, including carnivores and omnivores, are susceptible to this disease. Foxes, dogs, cats, and other wild and domestic animals require special attention regarding rabies. The purpose of this study is a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of rabies cases among animals in Ukraine for the period 2019–2024, with an emphasis on identifying areas of increased risk and trends over time. The data were collected from reports of regional laboratories, the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection, research data from the Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise and included confirmed cases of rabies among various animal species, such as foxes, cats, dogs, cattle, and others. The kernel density estimation (KDE) method was used to analyze the spatial distribution and intensity of rabies cases, and the directed distribution method was used to estimate the prevalence and central tendency of rabies cases. Data visualization was performed using Quantum GIS software. The analysis identified 7,123 rabies outbreaks over a six-year period, with the highest density of cases in the central and northern regions, in particular in Poltava, Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv regions. In 2020 and 2021, there was a noticeable spread of rabies cases to the southern and eastern regions. The kernel density estimation maps showed a consistently high level of rabies intensity in the central and northern regions, with some increase in the southern regions in 2020–2021. In 2024, a trend of widespread spread of the virus in the western regions of Ukraine is visible. During the analyzed period, foxes were the most affected animal species, accounting for 37.7 % of cases, followed by domestic carnivores (cats and dogs), which together accounted for 52.2 %, with farm animals accounting for only 7.1 %. The spatiotemporal analysis highlights the persistently high level of rabies in central and northern Ukraine, with new hotspots in the south and east. This study highlights the urgent need for targeted rabies control measures, including vaccination and monitoring, especially in identified high-risk areas. Effective rabies control requires a combination of improved diagnostic tools, accessible vaccines, and public awareness campaigns to reduce the spread of the disease among domestic and wild animals.