Trade and Deforestation Predict Rat Lungworm Disease, an Invasive-Driven Zoonosis, at Global and Regional Scales.

Abstract

The introduction of non-native species and deforestation are both important drivers of environmental change that can also facilitate the geographic spread of zoonotic pathogens and increase disease risk in humans. With ongoing trends in globalization and land-use conversions, introduced species and deforestation are ever more likely to pose threats to human health. Here, we used rat lungworm disease, an emerging zoonotic disease caused byand maintained by invasive rats and snails, to explore how these two forms of environmental change can impact zoonotic disease risk. We used logistic regressions to examine the role of global trade in the introduction ofat a country level and used model estimates to predict the probability of introduction as a function of trade. We then used hurdle-based regression models to examine the association between deforestation and rat lungworm disease in two regions whereis already established: Hawaii and Thailand. At the global scale, we found the trade of horticultural products to be an important driver in the spread ofand that the majority of countries at high risk of futureintroduction are islands. At country scales, we found deforestation to increase the per-capita risk ofexposure in Hawaii and Thailand. Our study provides a preliminary view of the associations between species introductions, deforestation, and risk ofexposure in people. Better understanding how these two widespread and overlapping forms of environmental change affect human health can inform international biosecurity protocols, invasive species management, and land-use policies.