Using simple models to review the application and implications of different approaches used to simulate transmission of pathogens among aquatic animals.

Abstract

Disease is an important issue affecting aquatic animal populations. Aquatic pathogens may be transmitted in ways that could result in qualitatively different impacts to those of terrestrial diseases. I analyse simple SIR epidemic models with different functions to describe transmission. Four forms of transmission are applied: density-dependent, density-independent, non-linear density-dependent and constant infection pressure; the first two are similar to terrestrial systems, the second two are based on specifically aquatic modes of transmission. Observed diseases and existing models are reviewed in terms of these simple forms. The significance of mode of transmission to host populations, to strategies to prevent or control diseases, and to wild-farm interactions are analysed. Different diseases are simulated by different transmission models, for example furunculosis depends on host density, while spread of phocine distemper virus is density-independent, and sea lice infestation pressure may result from open transmission processes that are not dependent on local infested hosts. Appropriate transmission model may also depend on the scale of interest (inter- or intra-population). These different models result in very different responses to intervention strategies, for example culling may be effective for controlling density-dependent disease but may be counter-productive when pathogens depend on open recruitment. It is therefore important for management that appropriate models (whether existing or novel) be selected and this paper aims to provide a basic framework for cataloguing and management of aquatic diseases.