A model (BSurvE) for evaluating national surveillance programs for bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

Abstract

Our BSurvE spreadsheet model estimates the BSE prevalence in a national cattle population, and can be used to evaluate and compare alternative strategies for a national surveillance program. Each individual surveillance test has a point value (based on demographic and epidemiological information) that reflects the likelihood of detecting BSE in an animal of a given age leaving the population via the stated surveillance stream. A target sum point value for the country is calculated according to a user-defined design prevalence and confidence level, the number of cases detected in animals born after the selected starting date and the national adult-herd size. Surveillance tests carried out on different sub-populations of animals are ranked according to the number of points gained per unit cost, and the results can be used in designing alternative surveillance programs.