Assessment of exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy in a hypothetical country.

Abstract

The authors present a basic quantitative spreadsheet model to evaluate the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) within a national setting. The model is based on information from BSE risk assessments undertaken in Latin American countries. The analysis focuses on the level of regulatory implementation and its impact over different time periods and estimates the potential impact if one BSE-infected animal is introduced into the production cycle. The information is consolidated so that the results of the evaluation can be presented for a hypothetical country, 'Country X'. Evaluating the BSE cycle within a country may help in making decisions on where preventive or control measures should be placed and/or enforced. Such an evaluation may also be used as the exposure assessment of a risk assessment, recommended by the World Organisation for Animal Health to determine the BSE risk status of a given country.