Modeling the spread of capripoxvirus among livestock and optimal vaccination strategies.

Abstract

Capripox is an important transboundary animal disease that is endemic across Africa, the Middle East, and some parts of Asia. The disease is highly contagious and considered to be a major obstacle causing significant economic loses in many agricultural areas. In this study, a mathematical model is developed to describe the transmission dynamics of capripoxvirus (CaPV) among livestock. This proposed model incorporates direct and indirect transmission of CaPV, together with two vaccination strategies, to investigate their effects on the severity of outbreaks and the prevalence of CaPV among the livestock population. The results suggest that ratio of potential vectors to livestock, successful probability of infection, vaccination rates, waning rate of vaccine-conferred protection, and virus introduction time play crucial roles in determining the outbreak severity and the prevalence level. The results also show that it is optimal to vaccinate newborns at the maximum effort throughout the control program and moderately increase vaccination rate for a susceptible pool to reach its maximum level after the outbreak.